May 28, 2009

• Global Warming - Before It Was Cool
   
  Typically when reading science-nonfiction it is best to seek out the more recent publications on account of the ever-increasing information and constantly revised theories.  But sometimes you will encounter an amazing intellect with an incredible ability to explain and communicate information that it is worth checking out their entire catalog - such was Carl Sagan.  While reading his final work, Billions and Billions, I ran across these interesting points.  Keep in mind this was written in 1996:

  The design of a new, safe, fast, fuel-efficient, clean greenhouse-responsible class of autos will spur many new technologies, and make a great deal of money for those with a technological edge.  The greatest danger for the American automobile industry is that if it resists too long, the necessary new technology will be provided and patented by foreign competition.  Detroit has a particular and parochial motivation to develop new greenhouse-responsible cars: its survival.

   

  When greenhouse gases are added to the atmosphere, the Earth’s climate does not respond instantaneously.  Instead it seems to take about a century for two-thirds of the total effect to be felt.  Thus, even if we stopped all CO2 and other emissions tomorrow, the greenhouse effects would continue to build until the next century.  This is a powerful reason to mistrust the ‘wait-and-see’ approach to the problem - it may be profoundly dangerous.

   

  If we are to prevent this climate danger from working its worst, we will simply all have to work together, and for a long time.  The principal obstacle is, of course, inertia, resistance to change - huge, worldwide, interlocking industrial, economic, and political establishments all beholden to fossil fuels, when fossil fuels are the problem.  In the U.S., as the evidence for the seriousness of global warming mounts, the political will to do something about it seems to be shriveling.

   

  Considering how contentious the scientific community is, it is notable that not a single paper is offered claiming that the depletion of the ozone layer or global warming are snares and delusions or that there was always a hole in the ozone layer over Antarctica, or that global warming will be considerably less than the estimated 1-4 degrees C for a doubling in the carbon dioxide abundance.  The rewards for finding that there is no ozone depletion or that global warming is insignificant are very high.  There are many powerful and wealthy industries and individuals that would benefit if only such contentions were true.  But as the programs of scientific meetings indicate, this is probably a forlorn hope.

   

  (This one is my favorite.) The ten hottest years since 1860 have all occurred in the 1980’s and early 90’s - despite the cooling of the Earth from the 1991 explosion of  the Philippine volcano Mount Pinatubo, which introduced 20-30 megatons of sulfur dioxide and aerosols into the atmosphere.  Those materials completely circled the Earth in about three months.  After only two months, they had covered about 40% of the Earth’s surface.  This was the second most violent volcanic eruption this century.  If the calculations are correct and there are no more big volcanic explosions in the near future, by the end of the 90’s the upward trend should reassert itself.  It has: 1995 was marginally the hottest year on record.

   

  Today, we are between ice ages, in what’s called an interglacial interval.  The typical temperature difference for the whole world between an ice age and an interglacial interval is only 3°-6°C or 5°-11°F.  This should immediately set alarm bells ringing:  a temperature change of only a few degrees can be serious business.

   

  All computer models show that global warming should be accompanied by significant increases in bad weather - severe drought inland, severe storm systems and flooding near the coasts, both much hotter and colder weather locally, all driven by a relatively modest incerement in the average planetary temperature.  This is why extreme cold weather in, say, Detroit in January is not the telling refutation of global warming that some newspaper editorial pages pretend. 

   

  It's fascinating to get an early perspective on a scientific problem that will be haunting us for generations.  Sagan's analysis was eerily accurate.  How disturbing that the same obstacles to action still exist today as did 13 years ago.  And the clock is ticking.
  

  • 11:14 pm
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