Global Warming - Before It Was Cool
 
Typically when reading science-nonfiction it is best to seek out the more recent publications on account of the ever-increasing information and constantly revised theories.  But sometimes you will encounter an amazing intellect with an incredible ability to explain and communicate information that it is worth checking out their entire catalog - such was Carl Sagan.  While reading his final work, Billions and Billions, I ran across these interesting points.  Keep in mind this was written in 1996:

The design of a new, safe, fast, fuel-efficient, clean greenhouse-responsible class of autos will spur many new technologies, and make a great deal of money for those with a technological edge.  The greatest danger for the American automobile industry is that if it resists too long, the necessary new technology will be provided and patented by foreign competition.  Detroit has a particular and parochial motivation to develop new greenhouse-responsible cars: its survival.

 

When greenhouse gases are added to the atmosphere, the Earth’s climate does not respond instantaneously.  Instead it seems to take about a century for two-thirds of the total effect to be felt.  Thus, even if we stopped all CO2 and other emissions tomorrow, the greenhouse effects would continue to build until the next century.  This is a powerful reason to mistrust the ‘wait-and-see’ approach to the problem - it may be profoundly dangerous.

 

If we are to prevent this climate danger from working its worst, we will simply all have to work together, and for a long time.  The principal obstacle is, of course, inertia, resistance to change - huge, worldwide, interlocking industrial, economic, and political establishments all beholden to fossil fuels, when fossil fuels are the problem.  In the U.S., as the evidence for the seriousness of global warming mounts, the political will to do something about it seems to be shriveling.

 

Considering how contentious the scientific community is, it is notable that not a single paper is offered claiming that the depletion of the ozone layer or global warming are snares and delusions or that there was always a hole in the ozone layer over Antarctica, or that global warming will be considerably less than the estimated 1-4 degrees C for a doubling in the carbon dioxide abundance.  The rewards for finding that there is no ozone depletion or that global warming is insignificant are very high.  There are many powerful and wealthy industries and individuals that would benefit if only such contentions were true.  But as the programs of scientific meetings indicate, this is probably a forlorn hope.

 

(This one is my favorite.) The ten hottest years since 1860 have all occurred in the 1980’s and early 90’s - despite the cooling of the Earth from the 1991 explosion of  the Philippine volcano Mount Pinatubo, which introduced 20-30 megatons of sulfur dioxide and aerosols into the atmosphere.  Those materials completely circled the Earth in about three months.  After only two months, they had covered about 40% of the Earth’s surface.  This was the second most violent volcanic eruption this century.  If the calculations are correct and there are no more big volcanic explosions in the near future, by the end of the 90’s the upward trend should reassert itself.  It has: 1995 was marginally the hottest year on record.

 

Today, we are between ice ages, in what’s called an interglacial interval.  The typical temperature difference for the whole world between an ice age and an interglacial interval is only 3°-6°C or 5°-11°F.  This should immediately set alarm bells ringing:  a temperature change of only a few degrees can be serious business.

 

All computer models show that global warming should be accompanied by significant increases in bad weather - severe drought inland, severe storm systems and flooding near the coasts, both much hotter and colder weather locally, all driven by a relatively modest incerement in the average planetary temperature.  This is why extreme cold weather in, say, Detroit in January is not the telling refutation of global warming that some newspaper editorial pages pretend. 

 

Why They Fight....

            .....and why you shouldn't play the Pittsburgh Penguins on April 25.

The Philadelphia Flyers return to home ice down 3-2 in a 7-game series against Pittsburgh.  They quickly build a 3-0 lead through the first period and a half.  They're dominating every aspect of the game, they've got the crowd, they've got the momentum, and a game 7 seems imminent.  Then this happens:

The announcer had it exactly right.  14 seconds later, the Penguins scored their first goal.  After 2 periods, the game was tied at 3.  Flyers momentum evaporated, and they never scored again. Terrible lack of discipline on the part of Carcillo, a seasoned fighter, who could not resist the matchup against the smaller Talbot.  Unfortunately, it probably cost Philadelphia the game/ended their season.  The Penguins will be planning for the next round while the Flyers are reserving tee times because of a 15 second bout of fisticuffs in a crucial time of the game.

And when was the last time the Penguins erased a 3-0 deficit to win a playoff game?  A year ago to the day.  April 25, 2008 against the New York Rangers.

Classic

Note the half-eaten bowl of oatmeal on the table.  Erica joins the Arnold tradition of falling asleep mid-meal.

What have they, what have they, what have they done to deserve this?

An actual news story or an article from The Onion?

Pet Shop Boys spurn rescue shelter remix

LONDON (AFP) – Electro-pop pioneers Pet Shop Boys turned down a request from animal rights group PETA Europe to adopt a more creature-friendly name, the band revealed on their website Thursday.

People for the Ethical Treatment of Animals suggested Neil Tennant and Chris Lowe rename themselves Rescue Shelter Boys to draw attention to the plight of animals raised in pet shops.

"Dear Neil and Chris, You have many loyal fans of the Pet Shop Boys here at PETA. Will you please consider changing your name from the Pet Shop Boys to the Rescue Shelter Boys?" pleaded a letter to the group from Yvonne Taylor, PETA's special projects manager.

"Most dogs and cats sold in pet shops are sourced from profit-hungry breeders who may have bred them in cramped, filthy conditions.

"For every bird who reaches a pet shop, three others have died during capture, confinement and transportation.

"Hamsters, mice and other rodents are often bred by the pet shops themselves, leading to inbreeding, genetic weaknesses, physical deformities and behavioral disorders.

"By agreeing to change your name to the Rescue Shelter Boys, you would help raise awareness about the cruelty involved in the pet trade and encourage your millions of fans to consider giving a home to an abandoned or unwanted animal from an animal shelter. So, what do you say?"

The pair, whose hits include "West End Girls", It's a Sin" and "Suburbia" declined the request, claiming they were "unable to agree," but said it "raises an issue worth thinking about."

Sadly, this is an actual news story.  PETA has its share of noble ideas and intentions, but its combination of completely ineffective marketing, public relations, and methods always seems to make the organization more of a punchline than a means of social change.  This doesn't help.

New York Post Celebrates Black History Month

Oh man, here we go.  The NY Post ran this cartoon yesterday:

Where to begin?  I don't know how anyone could interpret this as anything but a comparison of the first African-American president to a violent and now deceased chimpanzee.  How could anyone in good taste create such a cartoon?  How could anyone in good conscience publish it?  I think those questions were answered when I said "NY Post", owned and operated by Rupert Murdoch who also owns Fox News, Newscorp, and The Weekly Standard.  Col Allan, editor-in-chief, tried to defend the cartoon by saying:

                     "The cartoon is a clear parody of a current news event, to wit the shooting of a violent 
                      chimpanzee in Connecticut.  It broadly mocks Washington's efforts to revive the economy."

...by implying that the stimulus was written by a chimp i.e. Barack Obama.  Now, I remember that Bush's incompetence resulted in him being referred to as a chimp on certain occasions in certain circles.  But, some double standards are acceptable and exist for a reason.  It carries a very different connotation to refer to a Obama as a chimp, especially one that got out of control and needed to be shot.  White House Press Secretary Robert Gibbs declined comment while still kind of commenting:

           "I have not seen the cartoon," he told reporters aboard Air Force One as Obama returned 
           to Washington from Arizona where he announced his plan to deal with the foreclosure
           crisis.  "But I don't think it's altogether newsworthy reading the New York Post."

Indeed.             

Lucy pulls the football away from Illinois museum-goers

From the Chicago Sun-Times:

The tanking stock market has hit the Field Museum's endowment, which has dropped about $95 million -- 30 percent -- leading to salary cuts, layoffs and buyout offers to scientists and other employees.  While most of the planned upcoming exhibits will be presented as scheduled, financial belt-tightening contributed to the museum's decision not to present Lucy, a 3.2 million-year-old fossil of an ape-man species that was to debut here this fall, Field president John McCarter said Tuesday.

An ape-man species?  They couldn't have written Australopithecus Afarensis?  I know it's a dumbed-down culture and all but "ape-man species" for most people conjures up images of  Land of the Lost episodes and the Geico cavemen.  Anyway, this is thoroughly disappointing.  When the tour was announced a few years back, I was committed to making the trip up north.  Lucy's first stop in Houston was successful, but attendance in Seattle has been sparse.  Now, the whole tour is in jeopardy.  Poor Lucy - dead for over 3 million years and she still gets hit by the US economy.  As a souvenir from her trip to the states, someone should get her a shirt that reads:

I was a key step in the evolutionary ancestry of all humankind and all I got was this lousy t-shirt!

Success!

 You may remember this story of how Spencer had his two front teeth jammed up into his gums.  Well, since that time, the teeth slowly dropped back down into place as predicted.  Not predicted, however, was the complete deadening of cells and the potential absess and infection that could follow.  Thus, the decision was made to have teeth surgically removed.  It all happened this morning, and everything went smoothly.  He was given anasthetic and the whole procedure took less than 30 minutes.  Spencer was a trooper through the whole ordeal - positively happy all morning except for the 20 minutes in recovery where he had to keep an I.V. in his arm (he pointed to it and cried, "I have an ouchie.")  He felt better upon learning he would be treated to a day of eating mostly jello and pudding.  Erica was also cooperative, sleeping all the way until the above  photo-op.  Now, we're all at home enjoying our day off together and watching Spencer's teeth grow.

My new wallpaper

This is a recently released photo taken by the Hubble Telescope of the center of the Milky Way.  It is a composite color infrared image that contains an area 115 light years long by 300 light years wide.  Consider: light circles the Equator over 7 times per second.  At that rate, it would still take 300 years for light to travel the width of this photograph and 100,000 years to travel the span of the Milky Way galaxy, one galaxy of billions.  The supermassive black hole at the galaxy's center is somewhere in this picture, but being smaller than our solar system, is much smaller than a single pixel on this scale. 

For more information and downloads of the photo, go to the official Hubblesite.

This photo  brought to my attention by Phil Plait's Bad Astronomy blog - a fantastic source for quick hits of astronomy news and analysis for the layman.

Happy New...Oh, Sh&#@

After the league's marquee player scored the game-winning goal on a penalty shot amid falling snow in last year's Winter Classic, I didn't honestly hope for anything to top that - but I was hoping for a little better than this.  The first half of the game was great - good goals, an excited crowd, lots of passion from the players.  But excessive Chicago penalties gave the Red Wing power play machine too many opportunities, and Detroit rattled off five unanswered goals for a 6-3 lead.  Khabibulin, who should have been the starting goalie, came in to relieve Huet, and the Hawks were able to get one back.  But ultimately, it was a disappointing outing.  Oh well.  Move on.  Start another winning streak.

Why I am a member of and contributor to UCS

Lost among last week's headlines of shoe-throwers and disgraced Illinois politicians was this story reminding me that my modest donations to the UCS are being well spent:

Report: Endangered species decisions tainted

WASHINGTON – A high-ranking Interior Department official tainted nearly every decision made on the protection of endangered species over five years, a new inspector general report finds, concluding she exerted improper political interference on many more rulings than previously thought.

Julie MacDonald, a former deputy assistant secretary overseeing the Fish and Wildlife Service, did pervasive harm to the department's morale and integrity and may have risked the well-being of species with her agenda, Interior Inspector General Earl Devaney said in his report out Monday.

The Interior Department last year reversed seven rulings that denied endangered species increased protection, after an investigation found that MacDonald had applied political pressure in those cases. The new report looked at nearly two dozen other endangered species decisions not examined in the earlier report. It found MacDonald directly interfered with at least 13 decisions and indirectly affected at least two more.

MacDonald, a civil engineer with no formal training in natural sciences, resigned in May 2007. Department employees reported that they used her name as a verb — encountering political interference from senior managers was called "getting MacDonalded."

Devaney said "MacDonald's zeal to advance her agenda has caused considerable harm to the integrity of the ESA program and to the morale and reputation" of the Fish and Wildlife Service, as well as potential harm to animals under the Endangered Species Act.

She resigned weeks after the report by Devaney last year found that she broke federal rules and should face punishment for leaking information about endangered species to private groups. That report also said MacDonald censored science and mistreated staff.

The new investigation reaffirmed those findings and said MacDonald's influence was even more far-reaching. It also faulted her boss, former Assistant Secretary Craig Manson, as well as several other high-ranking Interior officials, including Randal Bowman, a special assistant to Manson, and Thomas Graf, a department lawyer. (emphasis mine)

In 2006, the UCS filed allegations that McDonald had "personally reversed scientific findings, changed scientific conclusions to prevent endangered species from receiving protection, removed relevant information from a scientific document, and ordered the Fish and Wildlife Service to adopt her edits."  The D.o.I.  Inspector General then undertook an investigation into said allegations.  Finding indicated that MacDonald had manipulated and undermined scientific findings in order to favor the Bush administration's policy goals and assist land developers.  MacDonald's resignation on May 1, 2007 came one week before a House congressional oversight committee was to hold a hearing on the Inspector General's findings.  Below is a statement by Francesca Grifo, director of the Scientific Integrity Program at the Union of Concerned Scientists (UCS):

"This report clarifies something we have suspected for a long time: Pervasive political interference in science has significantly hampered the ability of the U.S. Fish and Wildlife Service to carry out its mission to protect our nation's natural heritage. This investigation gives us a bigger picture of Julie MacDonald's politically influenced decisions and policies, but more needs to be done to completely uncover the extent of the damage she has done. As a result of these tainted decisions, developers are cutting trees, filling streams, and bulldozing habitat that threatened and endangered species rely on for their recovery. The Interior Department must reevaluate these flawed decisions as quickly as possible so that the best available science is used to protect our nation's biodiversity.

What can be said about the cronyism of this administration that hasn't already been said and demonstrated numerous times already?  I'm just glad it's almost over - I'm tired of "getting MacDonalded".